term life insurance quote online

It finally happened

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 08:27:27 +0000

Jim Cramer finally officially eliminated himself from any serious discussion about any economic issue, forever. I know, to many he eliminated himself a long time ago with his ludicrous housing is bottoming call a year ago, but for some reason he is still being hailed as some type of guru on CNBC. It is easy to do a hit piece on Cramer, I know, but this time he has gone a bit too far.
First, he claims he told people to sell last week before the big selloff on Friday, he did not on his Mad Money program. Second, he ran a piece tonight HERE, claiming he is giving you tomorrows headlines today, at 6 PM, what good is that, about the housing data tomorrow. Guess what he said? It is going to be bad. Really, no one had any idea since the data has been horrible for how long now? Not to mention everyone is expecting the data to be bad so even I am not convinced it will be the catalyst it should be. Regardless, the insanity doesnâ€™t end there, it gets better.
He claims he gets his information from the home builders who sell thousands of homes and have been extremely negative on housing versus economists who own only one home. He goes on to say how overly optimistic economists are and so forth which is not shocking to anyone since they have all overestimated the economic data we have seen recently and, frankly, he had also overestimated the data as well. Basically, he is jumping on the bandwagon which means the data is probably going to be better than we all think to begin with because Cramer is the freaking kiss of death for everything, seriously, he is. But it gets even better!
Cramer goes on to say that the poor housing data doesnâ€™t mean anything because it is such a small part of GDP. He said; â€œHousing, he added, is not a big percentage of the economy and said executives who have appeared on Mad Money have moved “well past” housing as the drivers of their earnings.â€ WHAT!? OK, housing is not a big part of the economy, sure, I guess that depends on exactly how you define housing. Sales or residential investment account for about 5% of GDP, but I would hardly call that inconsequential. However, it is the services that go into housing that is the driver of GDP growth, like appliances, materials, jobs, etc. which account for about 12-13% of total GDP. That is a combined total of 17 to 18% of GDP that is impacted by the housing market being in the tank, conservatively, according to the NAHB. That is not inconsequential to the economy and that is something that companies cannot just â€œmove pastâ€ in their earnings cycle.
The reason housing is such a big deal is because it touches so many parts of the economy and when housing falters so does the broader economy, obviously. To discount weak housing data from the overall economy or to not know how big housing is within the overall economy is incredulous. This matters because this impacts peopleâ€™s lives, especially when construction workers are one of the largest segment of the workforce unemployed right now, and shows that this person has no business talking about broader economic issues. I respect the fund manager and he has one hell of a track record, but as a macro guy or a guy putting the pieces together to figure out what the economy looks like he is officially, totally, disqualified now. His horrible housing call a year ago combined with not knowing how important or big housing is today proves it.

Subscribe to Annuity IQ’s Feed

LS Blogs
best term life insurance

If you just got worriedâ€¦

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 08:27:27 +0000

If you are just getting worried now about the economy over what Ben Bernanke said about the economy in todayâ€™s testimony I have to ask, where have you been? Did you not read the Fed minutes when they came out? Have you not read any of the economic indicators that have been showing we are heading for a slowdown? How about IBMâ€™s cautious warning or other firms who are being cautious about the immediate future?
My point is simple, the data is fairly clear, a slowdown is coming, period. Double dip? Probably, but we will not know for some time now. However, it is likely we are facing severe challenges moving forward and Ben is scared, he is out of ammo and he knows it. Everyone is speculating and asking what he is going to do to spur the economy â€˜ifâ€™ it weakens which is an absurd question because it is weakening and what is Ben doing? Nothing, why? Because he canâ€™t.
Sure, he can stop paying interest on bank reserves, but banks will not lend because they are impaired still, he admitted that today. Plus, banks will just turn around and buy treasuries because lending is just too risky right now which is why banks are not lending, on top of their balance sheets being loaded with debts marked to make believe. Everyone also believes quantitative easing is on the way, but it is not. I have said this many times before and will say it again, QE accomplished its goal, lowered mortgage rates, treasury rates and the dollar. I ask, what direction are mortgage rates, treasuries and the dollar headed? We are out of the â€œliquidityâ€ crisis part of our issues and are into the nobody wants to buy anything part of the problem, QE will not solve that problem.
Earnings season is a dud, period. I know, Apple, Apple, big deal they have the hottest products out right now and you expected them to fail or something? The question you have to ask yourself id this, what can Apple do next? They clearly had to push the iPhone 4 out and the iPad is something they really did not want to do, they were forced into it because they were told to by the geek squads. What product do they have next up their sleeve? Nothing so you better hope a whole lot of people want to keep buying an iPhone that doesnâ€™t really work as the title implies. Outside of Apple we had a couple of other standouts in the earnings department, but more misses than anyone wants to admit. There were lots of revenue misses which means cost cutting worked, but poor sales are still poor sales. The Fed cannot stop that people.
If you were not nervous before you should be nervous now, but I have no idea why you were not nervous before. All the speeches or all the rigged stress tests in the world will not change the facts, the economy on a global scale, is slowing down. Even China says that Europeâ€™s problems are creating big problems, like I forecasted previously, for their exports. How much do you want to bet that the Yuan strengthens further? I do not believe China is slowing down as much on purpose as much as China is just slowing down, but time will tell there. The real question is, if China does slow significantly more than forecasted what happens to the rest of the world? Answer, it isnâ€™t good.

Subscribe to Annuity IQ’s Feed

LS Blogs
advantages of term life insurance

The trade of the decade?

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 08:27:27 +0000

The 2Q10 GDP report came out and it was an eye opener for many people as it showed that the recession, depression, was deeper than most believed and things are surely not as rosy as we are being told. Aside from the inventory rebuild there is not much else going on, final sales are dead as a door nail and some firms, like Samsung, are reporting good earnings, but warning of weaker times ahead. I take the Samsung warning pretty seriously as they are a large or the largest supplier of electronics which had shown signs of strength recently. So when they say things may not be rosy in the near future I suspect that will apply to more than just TV sales.
What made the news cycle this week was a report by Fed President Bullard about the threat of a Japanese style deflation here in America. I am kind of shocked that people were caught so of guard by this news, about 10 economic data points already indicated this to be if not already occurring a very real near-term threat. I suspect we are in for some really tough times ahead and worse yet I suspect we will see the Fed start moving towards quantitative easing, again. As I have said, repeatedly, this will not do anything to boost economic demand as we must wait for the deleveraging cycle to be completed by the consumer before demand will return. Zero Hedge just wrote a piece about this tonight which illustrates exactly what I have been saying for a month now, but no one is listening. Here is what they said:
â€œIn other words, all those who say QE2.0 will do nothing to stimulate the economy are correct, as all such a greenlighted action would encourage is theÂ warehousing of yet more cash by banks. And since banks have no incremental incentives to lend it out, it doesn’t matter if the Fed’s liabilities are $2.5 trillion or $2.5 quadrillion. Instead of stimulating inflation, which is the end goal, all such an action would do is to create further doubts about the stability of the dollar, which in turn, as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard discussed, is a sure way to go to hyperinflation without first passing either Go, or inflation.â€
They also indicate my thoughts exactly, we bypass money velocity inflation and go straight to dollar devaluation, i.e. currency crisis, hyperinflation. The irony is that you would only feel this pain on imported goods and we do consume 87% of what we produce domestically so it may take some time before any real currency devaluation hits home. Regardless, Bullard indicated along with prior reports by Ben Bernanke himself that QE is on the table. The question is what kind of QE, treasury purchases or other asset purchases? Also, how much, I bet $3-5T in total purchases, but who knows.
What we do know, compliments of David Rosenberg, is that Ben Bernanke said IF we hit a Japanese style deflation that the target rate on the 30 year treasury would be 2.5%. Rosenberg says that if we hit that rate, down from the current 4% yield, one would receive about a 30% rate of return. I think he is right and if one followed his recommendations of treasuries and gold, along with high yield stocks, you would have avoided much volatility this year and had nice returns. I am happy to say I bought 2â€™s and 5â€™s when the yield was 1.10% and well over 2% so I am happy. I suspect the rally in treasuries will continue and if QE happens, wow.
The trade of the century, although risky, would be to leverage a long position into the 20+ year treasury market, UBT (2X bull) or TMF (3X bull). IF Rosenberg and I are right and this happens, QE, deflation or a major selloff in equities, those positions would do very well. However, they are risky, they are leveraged ETFâ€™s, but if you time it right I believe that you could do very well. I also believe that the bull market in bonds is in full force again, very similarly to the summer of 2008 I might add which adds a bit of mystery to the rally in treasuries. The mystery is, what is going on and is the bond market telling you that something really bad is coming?

A look at the chart above looks like there is something going on in the bond market. We broke above the 123/4 mark on the 30 year futures and now that is support. I believe it goes higher because of, at least, of deflationary pressures and, at worst, because of QE. However, while I am short-term bullish on treasuries I hate them long-term since it will be impossible for the U.S. to meet its long-term debt obligations which means they will default somehow in the future, in my opinion. I also believe, as stated earlier, that QE will wreck our currency maybe not now, but at some point in the near future which makes gold very attractive as well. If QE is announced treasuries will go nuts and so will gold. If one is levered into treasuries you could do well, if you want the risk.
What QE means for stocks, I do not know. I would think QE would be bad for stocks as it signals things are not good and the economy is weak, but we are living in bizzaro world where good news is fantastic and bad news is even better.

Subscribe to Annuity IQ’s Feed

LS Blogs
senior citizen term life insurance rates

Quantitative easing, itâ€™s reality, kind of

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 08:27:27 +0000

When I wrote last week that the Fed would do QE 2 and the trade of the century, granted that was over the top, was leveraged bull 20+ year ETFâ€™s I received some flack, a lot actually. First, letâ€™s talk about the economy and what is going on there. Second, letâ€™s talk about the treasury, gold barbell trade that seems wild and crazy. To clarify something, no, I am not drunk as one commenter asked.
The economy, oh, how this recovery summer is not such a recovery after all. Perhaps Geithnerâ€™s op-ed in the Times should have read, â€œSorry, we screwed up any chances of a recoveryâ€ instead of â€œWelcome to The Recovery.â€ Any improvement we have seen within the economy has been purely statistical or for the very wealthy, period. Yes, Saks and Macyâ€™s are indeed having good years, but look at Walmart, not such a blockbuster year. If you strip away the stimulus spending and government transfers you have poor GDP readings, period. I cannot see how anyone would or could really dispute that, but I am sure there are some that will try.
The truest test of any economy is unemployment and I was saying, before it was popular by a certain â€˜New Normalâ€™ guy, that unemployment was a leading indicator, not a lagging indicator. Our employment situation is poor at best considering that we are having more and more people leaving the workforce because they are giving up. Imagine just giving up all hope of finding work, not that you donâ€™t want a job, but you just canâ€™t find one, but since you have given up our government says you do not count anymore, nice. Anyhow, if we include all those people who dropped out of the workforce we are up to 10.2-10.5% official unemployment. As far as the U-6 we are still around the 17% area, but I am willing to bet it is much, much higher and who knows, exactly, how many people simple have been unemployed so long they just donâ€™t count anywhere anymore. Regardless, our unemployment issue is the truest test of our economic situation and has indicated for well over a year that the economy is in poor condition.
As far as the other economic data points and indicators, well, show me one that points to an actual positive improvement please. Hint, there is not one that points to a significant improvement in the economic condition in recent months. In fact it is so bad that the Fed is turning to a form of QE which they know will do nothing to boost the economy, but it will look like they are doing something. It is so bad you had Ben Bernanke testify in front of Congress and say; â€œI donâ€™t know what is going to happen,â€ basically when he said â€˜unusual uncertainty.â€™ You have the Fed Presidents talking about recessions, QE, Japan scenarios and a host of other issues, but donâ€™t worry because CNBC says no double dip. You know what, they are right. There will not be a double dip because we never made it out of the first depression.
We got the Fed doing this reinvesting of interest and repayment of principal now, to the tune of about $300B or so, into treasuries. What is that going to do for the economy? Nothing. Ben is trying to force banks to lend by doing a bull flattener to the yield curve, good luck Ben. What he doesnâ€™t realize yet is people do not want to borrow. In fact, people want to pay off their debts instead, go figure. Ben cannot boost demand and QE will not do anything at all besides make bond investors very happy. It is a dog and pony show to make everyone feel good and like the Fed has some ammo left, they donâ€™t and the game is over for them. All more QE will do is damage the dollar at some point in the future, that is a certainty. Consumer demand will return only after the deleveraging period is done and that could take 10 more years, who knows. It will be a tough ride, that is for sure.
Now, for those who thought I was nuts for going long a leveraged 20+ treasury ETF and gold, well, you donâ€™t have to say, my account says it for me. UBT was about $85 a share when the article came out and it closed today at about $90.50 and gold was at about $116.50 and it is at $117.73 (I am using GLD as a proxy). I do not believe the trade is done, I wouldnâ€™t enter it here, but I am not exiting it either, especially after CSCO missed their revenue estimates tonight. This was not a crazy trade, it was the most obvious trade in the world. Easy money like this does not happen very often so I am not sure why anyone would think this was â€˜high riskâ€™ or abnormal. You can hold leveraged ETFâ€™s, if they go in your favor, over a period of days, just not long-term.

Everyone knew the Fed was going to do something, anything, because the Fed is staunchly independent and not influenced by politics, yeah right. Come on, the Fed knew it had to do something to show it was helping the economy, but not too much because we have an election coming up. What could be safer than maintaining the balance sheet, but reinvesting loose change into treasuries to bring down long-term treasury rates? It does not raise any eyebrows, everyone knew they would do this and it does help borrowers, but it doesnâ€™t help the real economy. Regardless, this was telegraphed and sets up the Fed for real money printing and QE after November.

In the meantime, I plan on locking in profits on my UBT soon and rolling into TLT on weakness. I fully expect that we see the 30 treasury move towards the 3% area, maybe 2.5% as Ben wrote about in the past. That makes longer duration treasuries very attractive still and inflation is not an issue now. However, inflation will be at some time in the future and QE will damage the dollar, hence the gold hedge. I think gold goes back to its high and make a run towards $1,300 an ounce, maybe higher is full blown QE kicks in this fall. Equities are not attractive, in my view, unless they pay an outsized dividend and have a strong balance sheet. Stocks like AAPL, no thanks, they do not work in this environment unless they pull a new killer product out of their back pocket every other month. Good luck.

Subscribe to Annuity IQ’s Feed

LS Blogs
term life insurance quote online

American National – Interest Rates are going up for Most plans in April.

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 08:27:26 +0000

American National – Interest Rates are going up for Most plans in April.
American National Life Insurance Company– will raise fixed annuity Interest Rates on most plans in April PDF
senior citizen term life insurance rates

EquiTrust Life is pleased to announce a rate increase.

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 08:27:26 +0000

EquiTrust Life is pleased to announce a rate increase. New rates take effect for applications received on or after Tuesday, April 11. These rates are some of the best available from an “A” or Better Carrier!
Certainty (MYGA) Year 1 Years 2+ Effective Rate3 Years 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%5 Years 4.75% 4.75% 4.75%6 Years 9.00% 4.00% 4.82%8 Years 10.00% 4.00% 4.73%10 Years 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
MarketPower Bonus Index Fixed Rate: 3.25% (formerly 3.00%)Point-to-Point Cap: 6.50% (unchanged) Daily Averaging Cap: 10.00% (formerly 8%) Two-Year Monthly Averaging: NO CAP! (unchanged) MarketSeven Index (Caps and rates are unchanged BUT commissions were increased 1.50% to 7.50% 0-80!)MarketValue Index Fixed Rate: 3.65% (formerly 3.40%)Point-to-Point Cap: 7.00% (unchanged) Monthly Averaging Cap: 11.00% (formerly 9.00%) Two-Year Monthly Averaging: NO CAP! MarketBooster Index Fixed Rate: 3.50% (formerly 3.25%)Point-to-Point Cap: 7.00% (formerly 6.25%)Daily Averaging Cap: 11.00% (formerly 9.00%)Two-Year Monthly Averaging: NO CAP!
Don’t miss this outstanding opportunity for highly competitive rates; please call The Annuity Shoppe at 888-661-1999. Wholesale Fixed Annuity Brokerage, Annuities information, Annuity Products, Rates, Quotes, Calculator
Rates are subject to change. EquiTrust Life Insurance Company is rated A by A.M. Best Company for its relative financial strength and ability to meet its obligations to policyholders. An A rating is the third highest of A.M. Best’s 16 individual rates. Surrender of the contract may be subject to surrender charge and market value adjustment. Withdrawals before age 59½ may result in a 10% IRS penalty tax. Withdrawals do not participate in index growth. Products not available in all states. Contracts issued on Contract Form Series ET-MPP-2000(02-05), ET-EIA-2000(06-04), ET-MK7-2000(09-04) and ET-MKB-2000(07-05). Group Certificates issued on Form Series ET-MPP-2000C(02-05), ET-EIA-2000C(11-04), ET-MK7-2000C(11-04) and ET-MKB-2000C(07-05). EquiTrust Life Insurance Company, West Des Moines, IA. For Agent Use Only.
term life insurance quote online

EquiTrust Life is pleased to announce a Rate Increase!

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 08:27:26 +0000

Effective Tuesday, April 25, rates are going up (AGAIN) for the 5, 6, 8 and 10 year guarantee periods, for Certainty SelectTM and CertaintyTM (MYGA) annuities! New rates, effective 4/25/06, for Certainty Select and Certainty Year 1 Year 2 Effective Rate 3 years 4.50% 4.50% 5 years 5.00% 5.00% (formerly 4.75/4.75) 6 years 10.00% 4.00% 4.98% (formerly 9.00/4.00) 8 years 9.50% 4.50% 5.11% (formerly 10.00/4.00) 10 years 5.25% 5.25% (formerly 5.00/5.00) Certainty Select is a multi-year guaranteed annuity featuring Full Accumulation Value at death. Cumulative interest can be withdrawn at any time without surrender charge or MVA. But if you like the liquidity features of the original Certainty, the Optional Rider recreates many of the ‘original’ Certainty features, giving your clients 10% free withdrawals of accumulation value, reduced surrender charges and Cash Surrender Value at death.
Don’t miss this outstanding opportunity for highly competitive rates; please call The Annuity Shoppe at 888-661-1999. Wholesale Fixed Annuity Brokerage, Annuities information, Annuity Products, Rates, Quotes, Calculator
best term life insurance

Rate Increase Announced for Certainty SelectTM and Indexed Annuities!

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 08:27:26 +0000

Rate Increase Announced for Certainty SelectTM and Indexed Annuities! New Rates, Effective May 8, 2006 Certainty SelectTM and CertaintyTM Year 1 Year 2+ Effective Rate 3-Year 4.65% 4.65% (formerly 4.50%) 5-Year 5.00% 5.00% 6-Year 10.00% 4.00% 4.98% 8-Year 9.50% 4.50% 5.11% 10-Year 5.25% 5.25% Indexed Annuities Fixed Rate Account Ann. Reset Pt-to-Pt Ann. Reset Averaging 2-Yr Monthly Averaging Product Name MarketPower Bonus IndexTM 3.50% 7.00% 11.00% (daily) No Cap! MarketValue IndexTM 4.00% 7.75% 12.00% (monthly) No Cap! MarketSeven IndexTM 4.00% 7.50% 11.00% (daily) No Cap! MarketBooster IndexTM 3.75% 7.00% 11.00% (daily) No Cap! Don’t Miss this Opportunity for Highly Competitive Fixed Annuity Rates! And don’t forget these other recently announced opportunities:

1% Commission Bonus on MarketBooster Index!*
Commission Increase on MarketSeven Index!
Hypothetical Index Growth Charts!
* Special Commission Bonus available on all MarketBooster Index apps received May 1 through June 30, 2006. Standard premium minimums apply. Bonus added automatically to your commission! Rates subject to change. Products not available in all states. Contracts issued on Contract Form Series ET-MPP-2000(02-05), ET-EIA-2000(06-04), ET-MK7-2000(09-04), ET-MKB-2000(07-05) and ET-MYG-2000(11-05). Group Certificates issued on Form Series ET-MPP-2000C(02-05), ET-EIA-2000C(11-04), ET-MK7-2000C(11-04), ET-MKB-2000(07-05) and ET-MYG-2000C(11-05). EquiTrust Life Insurance Company, West Des Moines, IA. For Agent Use Only.
Don’t miss this outstanding opportunity for highly competitive rates; please call The Annuity Shoppe at 888-661-1999. Wholesale Fixed Annuity Brokerage, Annuities information, Annuity Products, Rates, Quotes, Calculator
term life insurance quote online

The Lowdown on Travel Insurance

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 08:27:25 +0000

So you’ve booked thatÂ big vacation over the summer and you’re counting down the days until you leave. Unfortunately, what most people don’t expect when they plan a big trip is the unexpected. The stories of vacation plans fouled are the last thing you want to think of- but should be considered. For example, what happens [...]
advantages of term life insurance

Lightning Safety Week Sparks Awareness

Sun, 22 Aug 2010 08:27:25 +0000

Since summer is the peak season for lightning activity and therefore lightning Â injuries and deaths, it is most suiting that this past week, June 20-June 26th was coined “Lightning Safety Week”. The goal of lightning safety week is to educate people, young and old, about the dangers of lightning and how to stay safe when [...]
best term life insurance